International Sanctions and the Duration of Civil Conflicts

Abstract

We examine the effects of international sanctions on the expected duration of civil conflicts, using civil wars and sanctions data for the period of 1960 - 2008. We do so by estimating the hazard rate of war termination due to sanctions. Contrary to most of the previous findings, we find that international sanctions, at the aggregate level, do reduce the expected duration of civil conflicts. Our findings are
robust with respect to different controls, different parametric models, and the consideration of endogeneity of sanctions. However, not all types of sanctions are equally successful in shortening conflicts. Total economic embargoes and arms sanctions are effective, but trade sanctions, aid suspension, and other sanctions are not. We also find that both multilateral and unilateral sanctions reduce the duration of civil wars. JEL Classification: C41, D74, F51, O19